Table 1 Input variables for the dynamic disease model
From: Consequences of tuberculosis among asylum seekers for health care workers in Germany
Category of variable | Name of variable | Basic value | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
Number of refugees arriving per year | T_refugees | Decreasing number from 1st to 4th year, then plateau | Federal Ministry of the Interior estimate of 19 August 2015 (http://www.bamf.de/DE/Infothek/Aktuelles/aktuelles-node.html) |
Probability of deportation per year | pExit | 0.0628 | Calculated from data in [13] and (https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/abschiebungen-103.html) |
Probability of TB ascertained on entry screening | pSick_Entry | 0.0025 | Diel et al. [3] |
Probability of infectious pulmonary TB | pInfect_TB | 0.6121 | RKI 2015 [8] |
Probability of later development of TB in refugees (up to 5 years after entry) | T_active | Decreasing probability from 1st to 5th year | Calculated from data in Diel et al. [3] |
Probability of MDR-TB in cases of infectious pulmonary TB | pInfect_MDR_TB | 0.0324 | Calculated from RKI data 2015 [9] |
Probability of MDR-TB in cases of non-infectious TB | pMDR_TB | 0.010 | RKI 2015 [9] |