Table 2 Results and sensitivity analyses
From: Consequences of tuberculosis among asylum seekers for health care workers in Germany
a) Base case | ||||||||||
Year | Healthy at entry | Infectious TB at entry | Non-infectious TB at entry | Non-infectious MDR-TB at entry | Infectious MDR-TB at entry | Later infectious TB | Later non-infectious TB | Later infectious MDR-TB | Later non-infectious MDR-TB | Exit |
1 | 798,000.00 | 1184.54 | 768.04 | 7.76 | 39.66 | 775.11 | 251.60 | 12.99 | 2.54 | 0.00 |
2 | 1,145,576.88 | 1776.80 | 1152.06 | 11.64 | 59.50 | 1833.55 | 595.37 | 30.75 | 6.01 | 50,177.20 |
3 | 1,271,347.55 | 2072.94 | 1344.07 | 13.58 | 69.41 | 2575.24 | 836.41 | 43.19 | 8.45 | 122,250.73 |
4 | 1,362,893.97 | 2329.20 | 1510.23 | 15.25 | 77.99 | 3038.57 | 987.03 | 50.97 | 9.97 | 202,286.12 |
5 | 1,449,161.25 | 2585.46 | 1676.39 | 16.93 | 86.57 | 3390.47 | 1101.44 | 56.88 | 11.13 | 288,111.21 |
10,090 cases (5976 infectious drug-susceptible TB cases, 143 infectious MDR-TB cases) | ||||||||||
b) 800,000 asylum seekers every year | ||||||||||
Year | Healthy at entry | Infectious TB at entry | Non-infectious TB at entry | Non-infectious MDR-TB at entry | Infectious MDR-TB at entry | Later infectious TB | Later non-infectious TB | Later infectious MDR-TB | Later non-infectious MDR-TB | Exit |
1 | 798,000.00 | 1184.54 | 768.04 | 7.76 | 39.66 | 775.11 | 502.58 | 25.95 | 5.08 | 0.00 |
2 | 154,4576,88 | 2369.07 | 1536.08 | 15.52 | 79.33 | 2202.21 | 1427.89 | 73.74 | 14.42 | 5,0114.40 |
3 | 2,243,167.91 | 3553.61 | 2304.13 | 2327 | 118.99 | 3510.83 | 2276.39 | 117.56 | 22.99 | 147,113.83 |
4 | 2,898,087.45 | 4738.14 | 3072.17 | 31.03 | 158.66 | 4496.07 | 2915.21 | 150.55 | 29.45 | 287,984.77 |
5 | 3,512,424.05 | 5922.68 | 3840.21 | 38.79 | 198.32 | 5348.99 | 3468.24 | 179.11 | 35.03 | 469,984.66 |
19,031 cases (11,272 infectious drug-susceptible TB cases, 377 infectious MDR-TB cases) | ||||||||||
c) Halved TB prevalence at chest X-ray screening and 800,000 asylum seekers every year | ||||||||||
Year | Healthy at entry | Infectious TB at entry | Non-infectious TB at entry | Non-infectious MDR-TB at entry | Infectious MDR-TB at entry | Later infectious TB | Later non-infectious TB | Later infectious MDR-TB | Later non-infectious MDR-TB | Exit |
1 | 799,000.00 | 592.27 | 384.02 | 3.88 | 19.83 | 776.08 | 502.58 | 25.95 | 5.08 | 0.00 |
2 | 1,546,512.44 | 1184.54 | 768.04 | 7.76 | 39.66 | 2204.97 | 1427.89 | 73.74 | 14.42 | 50,114.40 |
3 | 2,245,978.90 | 1776.80 | 1152.06 | 11.64 | 59.50 | 3515.23 | 2276.39 | 117.56 | 22.99 | 147,113.83 |
4 | 2,901,719.14 | 2369.07 | 1536.08 | 15.52 | 79.33 | 4,501,71 | 2915.21 | 150.55 | 29.45 | 287,984.77 |
5 | 3,516,825.59 | 2961.34 | 1920.11 | 19.40 | 99.16 | 5355.70 | 3468.24 | 179.11 | 35.03 | 469,984.66 |
14,043 cases (8317 infectious drug-susceptible TB cases, 278 infectious MDR-TB cases) | ||||||||||
d) Halved TB prevalence at chest X-ray screening, halved probabilities of developing TB in the following 5 years and 800,000 asylum seekers every year | ||||||||||
Year | Healthy at entry | Infectious TB at entry | Non-infectious TB at entry | Non-infectious MDR-TB at entry | Infectious MDR-TB at entry | Later infectious TB | Later non-infectious TB | Later infectious MDR-TB | Later non-infectious MDR-TB | Exit |
1 | 7,990,00.00 | 592.27 | 384.02 | 3.88 | 19.83 | 388.04 | 503.21 | 25.99 | 5.08 | 0.00 |
2 | 1,547,167.62 | 1184.54 | 768.04 | 7.76 | 39.66 | 1102.79 | 1429.68 | 73.83 | 14.44 | 50,177.20 |
3 | 2,247,798.70 | 1776.80 | 1152.06 | 11.64 | 59.50 | 1758.45 | 2279.24 | 117.71 | 23.02 | 147,298.18 |
4 | 2,904,529.90 | 2369.07 | 1536.08 | 15.52 | 79.33 | 2252.17 | 2918.87 | 150.74 | 29.48 | 288,345.66 |
5 | 3,520,291.83 | 2961.34 | 1920.11 | 19.40 | 99.16 | 2679.58 | 3472.58 | 179.34 | 35.08 | 470,573.62 |
9524 cases (5641 infectious drug-susceptible TB cases, 279 infectious MDR-TB) | ||||||||||
e) Halved TB prevalence at chest X-ray screening and halved probabilities of developing TB in the following 5 years | ||||||||||
Year | Healthy at entry | Infectious TB at entry | Non-infectious TB at entry | Non-infectious MDR-TB at entry | Infectious MDR-TB at entry | Later infectious TB | Later non-infectious TB | Later infectious MDR-TB | Later non-infectious MDR-TB | Exit |
1 | 7,990,00.00 | 592.27 | 384.02 | 3.88 | 19.83 | 388.04 | 251.60 | 12.99 | 2.54 | 0.00 |
2 | 1,147,667.62 | 888.40 | 576.03 | 5.82 | 29.75 | 918.23 | 595.37 | 30.75 | 60.10 | 50,177.20 |
3 | 1,274,448.91 | 1036.47 | 672.04 | 6.79 | 34.71 | 1289.98 | 836.41 | 43.19 | 8.45 | 122,250.73 |
4 | 1,366,641.51 | 1164.60 | 755.12 | 7.63 | 39.00 | 1522.28 | 987.03 | 50.97 | 9.97 | 202,286.12 |
5 | 1,453,279.86 | 1292.73 | 838.19 | 8.47 | 43.29 | 1698.73 | 1101.44 | 56.88 | 11.13 | 288,111.21 |
5051 cases (2991 infectious drug-susceptible TB cases, 100 infectious MDR-TB cases) | ||||||||||